Saints vs Chargers Prediction, Odds and Picks | Pickswise

Under, under and under again. This game has a low-scoring affair written all over it. It’s the 2nd-lowest total of Week 7 and I don’t think it’s low enough. There are 2 main reasons for taking the under in this game, with the first being the Saints offense. New Orleans managed 27 points with Rattler in Week 6, but that was against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has a terrible secondary that is extremely vulnerable to deep balls, so it wasn’t too surprising to see Rattler succeed against them (even though he still threw 2 picks). But his next opponent was Denver, who has a much stronger defense and Rattler crumbled without his main offensive weapons. He might get Olave back this week, but he and Kamara are still dealing with lingering injuries.

Secondly, the Chargers are perfect for the under. Los Angeles has formed one of the best defensive units in football as they have allowed the 9th-fewest rushing yards and the 9th-fewest passing yards per game. The Chargers have allowed 20 points just once this season and have limited some hot offenses like the Chiefs and Cardinals to just 17 points. Considering the Saints managed just 10 points with help from a garbage-time touchdown against the Broncos, they might have a tough time getting to double-digit points. Plus, I’m still not expecting much from the Chargers offense except for J.K. Dobbins, but running the ball with him is going to run the clock and make for less possessions. This is my favorite under in Week 8.

Saints vs Chargers prediction: Under 40.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 40.

It’s been a rough few weeks without Derek Carr for New Orleans. The Saints QB suffered an oblique injury during their loss to the Chiefs and it’s caused him to miss back-to-back weeks and maybe even more. Carr began throwing this week at practice and is highly unlikely to recover in time for this weekend’s game. The good news is that he will likely return in Week 9, so it’s just one more game with Spencer Rattler at quarterback. Rattler has completed 62.7% of his passes for 453 yards in his first 2 career starts but has tossed just 1 touchdown with 2 interceptions. However, it’s hard to put all the blame on him since he was without Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed in their Week 7 loss to the Broncos. Rattler had to rely on Alvin Kamara on the ground and through the air, but the Broncos knew that too and limited his action in the game. Kamara even admitted after the game that he’s played the last 2 weeks with a broken hand, so the Saints are extremely banged up right now.

Give credit to Justin Herbert, who went from Austin Ekeler, Keenen Allen and Gerald Everett last season to J.K. Dobbins, Ladd McConkey and Will Dissly in 2024. It’s been a huge change in offensive personnel for the Chargers and it’s unfortunately led to them being one of the worst offensive teams in the league. The good news is that their defense has been the best in the league. Los Angeles has allowed just 13.8 points per game so far this season as the addition of Jim Harbaugh has made them a much more defensive-minded team. With that said, I can’t lay a 7.5-point spread with the Chargers because of their offense. I’m leaning towards the Saints to lose by a touchdown or less, but my preferred take on this game is the total.

Saints vs Chargers prediction: Saints +7.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.

AFC West teams have won 4 of their last 5 matchups against NFC South sides.

The Over is 7-3 in the Saints' last 10 games.

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