Chargers vs. Titans: Reasons why Los Angeles should improve to 6-3

The Chargers return to SoFi Stadium after a successful one-game trip to Cleveland, upping their chances of making the playoffs to 72%, according to NFL.com. Another win on Sunday against a struggling Titans squad would up those odds to 79%.

It’s a big matchup despite Tennessee standing at just 2-6, as the teams close to Los Angeles on the bubble have tough matchups in Week 10. Cincinnati already lost to Baltimore on Thursday Night Football, while Denver and Indianapolis host Kansas City and Buffalo, respectively, on Sunday.

Here’s why you should be confident about a Chargers win.

Tennessee Titans running back Tony Pollard (20) is stopped by New England Patriots linebacker Christian Elliss (53) during the third quarter at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024.

Whether it’s been Will Levis or Mason Rudolph at quarterback for Tennessee, the Titans offense has been among the league’s worst on an EPA/play basis. Tennessee is 29th in the NFL in total offensive EPA/play – ahead of Carolina, Cleveland, and Las Vegas, all of whom played the Chargers earlier in the season – 30th in EPA/dropback, and 26th in EPA/rush.

The Titans seem to be getting Tyjae Spears (hamstring) back this week after the running back practiced in full on Thursday, but his return comes at the apparent cost of Tony Pollard, who did not practice on Thursday with a foot injury. Pollard has been Tennessee’s best offensive player, so his absence will make it even harder for the Titans to move the ball. The Chargers also have the second-best run defense in the league on an EPA/play basis.

Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis (8) collides with Indianapolis Colts linebacker E.J. Speed (45) during the second quarter at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., Sunday, Oct. 13, 2024.

Normally, getting your starting quarterback back from injury is a positive thing for your team. But before missing the last three games with an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder, Levis was becoming one of the league’s most famously bad quarterbacks. A new Levis image seemed to appear every week as he committed untimely turnovers and put himself into dangerous situations, with Titans head coach Brian Callahan asking him “what the f— are you doing?” on at least one occasion.

Indeed, Levis has been worse than Rudolph on an EPA/dropback basis this season, but the Titans have to see if there are any redeemable traits in their young starter as the team heads towards a rebuilding offseason after the year. Putting a quarterback known for bad decision making back in the lineup against Jesse Minter’s defense nonetheless feels like it will bear out as a strong Chargers advantage.

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Tennessee put starting cornerback Chidobe Awuzie on injured reserve at the end of September, and while reports indicate he’s close to returning, he has yet to return to practice for the Titans this week and will most likely not suit up on Sunday. The Titans also lost safety Quandre Diggs to a season-ending Lisfranc injury last week. Cornerback L’Jarius Sneed has also not practiced this week with a quad injury and is trending towards not playing.

With all of this in mind, the Titans are in line to start at least two, and probably three, reserves in the secondary against a Chargers offense led by an absolutely red-hot Justin Herbert. While rookie cornerback Jarvis Brownlee Jr. and safety Amani Hooker have played well this season, the potential of throwing at special teamers Tre Avery and/or Mike Brown on Sunday should look very appealing to Los Angeles.

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The Chargers plucked three defenders off of last year’s Titans squad: cornerback Kristian Fulton, defensive lineman Teair Tart (after he released, signed by Houston, then signed and was released by Miami), and safety Elijah Molden (who LA traded a 2026 seventh round pick for). All three have played a heavy complement of snaps for Los Angeles. Fulton has been the team’s top corner when healthy, but has been dealing with a hamstring injury for a few weeks. Tart has been a key part of the defensive line rotation. Molden has been the team’s third safety and leads the squad in interceptions.

Meanwhile, Tennessee signed two players from LA’s 2023 defense – lineman Sebastian Joseph-Day and linebacker Kenneth Murray. Joseph-Day was the subject of trade rumors last week before Tuesday’s deadline, but ultimately stayed put on the Titans, where he’s played a career-high 93 snaps on the edge while playing at about replacement level. Only one player who’s played all eight games for the Titans is graded lower than Murray by Pro Football Focus, as the linebacker has continue to struggle to defend the run and has allowed 27 of his 29 targets in coverage to be completed, including four touchdowns.

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Los Angeles has not lost a game to a team that is currently under .500 this season, beating Las Vegas, Carolina, New Orleans, and Cleveland by a combined score of 101-31. (In the Chargers’ other four games, in which they are 1-3, they are currently behind by a combined score of 60-58.)

Jim Harbaugh’s comments this week went viral when he called the middle set of games in the season the most important, but the message is clear: Los Angeles is not going to ease up on the pedal because it looks like a soft matchup on paper. That’s a welcome mentality for Chargers fans, who no doubt are still scarred by an embarrassing 41-29 loss to the 3-11 Texans in 2021 that ultimately knocked LA out of the playoffs that season.

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