Jim Harbaugh has raised the Chargers’ floor — the next 5 weeks will determine their ceiling - The Athletic

EL SEGUNDO, Calif. — The Los Angeles Chargers hired Jim Harbaugh to lift their organization, and within that expectation were two components.

First, they wanted Harbaugh to raise the team’s floor. In the 11 seasons before Harbaugh arrived, the Chargers made the playoffs only three times. They won more than 10 games once. They had five losing seasons, including four with at least 11 losses. Every step forward was followed by a decisive step backward. They won at times. But there was no sustained winning, season over season. Letdowns and playing down to inferior opponents were commonplace. Harbaugh was hired to change that.

Second, they wanted Harbaugh to raise the team’s ceiling. This facet takes more work. Good coaching — consistent preparation, consistent effort, consistent mentality, consistent culture — can raise a floor by itself. Raising a ceiling and propelling a team into genuine championship contention? That takes a certain level of talent throughout a roster.

The Chargers are now nine games into the Harbaugh era, and it is clear the floor has been raised. There have been no letdowns. They have convincingly handled inferior opponents. They beat the Las Vegas Raiders (2-7), Carolina Panthers (3-7), New Orleans Saints (3-7), Cleveland Browns (2-7) and Tennessee Titans (2-7) with an average margin of victory of 16 points. That number could have been bigger without late meaningless touchdowns allowed to the Browns and Titans. The Chargers are 6-3. They are firmly in the playoff picture. This is what a raised floor looks like.

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Now the Chargers will find out what their ceiling is in 2024. This week begins the most difficult stretch of their schedule. They play the Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, Atlanta Falcons, Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the next five games. The raised floor has put the Chargers in the mix. The ceiling, when it comes into focus over the next five weeks, will determine what they can accomplish in this inaugural season.

“We can hang and play with anybody, and we just got to go and lock in,” defensive lineman Morgan Fox said. “We do have some really good teams up on the schedule coming forward, and we got to see how we can all affect the game in different ways and keep the momentum going.”

To be in this position is an accomplishment. It is a change for the organization.

In recent history, the Chargers have not always won the games they were supposed to win. And those letdowns changed the trajectory of seasons.

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The season finale against the Raiders in 2021, when the Chargers missed the playoffs with an overtime loss, has gone down in infamy. And rightfully so because it was an epic game. But two weeks before that, the Chargers played at a then-3-11 Houston Texans team the day after Christmas. The Texans scored 41 points. Running back Rex Burkhead rushed for 149 yards and two touchdowns. The Chargers suffered an embarrassing loss, which eventually set the stage for missing the postseason.

This is just one example of what had been a trend for the Chargers.

Winning winnable games is a step forward.

“I truly believe no one in the league approaches the week the same way we do,” left tackle Rashawn Slater said. “We just work. It’s all work, and everybody’s bought in.”

"Thing always get tied back to football for me..

Guilty as charged there" 😂😂 @CoachJim4UM #PMSLive pic.twitter.com/LofS4oJid8

— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) November 11, 2024

At the same time, the schedule has not significantly tested the Chargers yet. That is just the truth.

“We can’t get ahead of ourselves and think we’re anything special when we have a lot of good teams to play,” edge rusher Joey Bosa said.

These five weeks will show us who the Chargers really are, especially on defense. Coordinator Jesse Minter’s unit is playing well. The Chargers are allowing only 12.9 points per game on defense, the best mark in the league, according to TruMedia. No other defense is allowing fewer than 16 points per game. The Chargers are a more cohesive defense. They communicate better. They are more connected. They play faster. They are more physical. They have been consistent despite injuries up front and on the back end.

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Minter is proving himself as one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL. Good coaching raises the floor. And the Chargers maintained some quality play against good offenses like the Chiefs and Arizona Cardinals. But what will Minter’s unit look like against Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson in back-to-back weeks? And against the Falcons and Bucs, who have consensus top-10 offenses? And against Patrick Mahomes on the road at Arrowhead?

The ceiling is unknown.

Fox believes Minter’s approach to preparation will allow the Chargers to maintain success through this stretch.

“Coach Minter always says, ‘How would we prepare if this was the AFC Championship Game? How would we prepare if this was the Super Bowl?’” Fox said. “So that’s kind of the mentality that we’ve locked into. It’s like, how would we prepare if this was the most important game of the season? So that’s kind of where we’ve been going, and I think that’s really what’s helped propel us in the direction that we’re going.”

Said Harbaugh: “One-week league. I think everybody understands what that is and what needs to go in, in terms of preparation, to give yourself a better chance to be successful in that game.”

The Chargers started the season 2-0 with wins over the Raiders and Panthers. After the win in Carolina, the Chargers spent the week in Charlotte before heading to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers.

“On to Pittsburgh,” Harbaugh said that week. “Let’s find out what we’re made of.”

The Chargers battled, but quarterback Justin Herbert was knocked out of the game in the second half because of his high ankle sprain. They lost 20-10.

Harbaugh does not view this five-game stretch as the same type of litmus test.

“I know what our guys are now,” he said. “I know what we are, who we are.”

Harbaugh knows.

The rest of us will find out over the next five weeks.

(Photo of Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert: Harry How / Getty Images)

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Daniel Popper is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the Los Angeles Chargers. He previously covered the Jacksonville Jaguars for The Athletic after following the New York Jets for the New York Daily News, where he spent three years writing, reporting and podcasting about local pro sports. Follow Daniel on Twitter @danielrpopper

Daniel Popper@danielrpopper