Five Chargers predictions at NFL midseason: Justin Herbert will be MVP worthy in second half - The Athletic

It is officially November, and the Los Angeles Chargers are nearing the midpoint of Jim Harbaugh’s first season.

They are 4-3 through eight weeks. There have been positives, such as the resurgent defense. There have been negatives, such as the inconsistent rushing attack and uneven offensive play down the stretch of games.

The Chargers are still forming their identity in this inaugural Harbaugh season. The true nature of this team will come into clearer focus over the second half of the season, as the Chargers likely push for a playoff spot.

Here are five predictions for the remainder of the season.

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McConkey, who the Chargers drafted in the second round in April, is coming off the best game of his young career. He set highs in catches (six), yards (111) and touchdowns (two) in a Week 8 win over the New Orleans Saints. This felt like a real breakout for two primary reasons.

One, McConkey was able to successfully attack down the field for the first time this season, taking a deep shot 60 yards for one of his scores. Two, on both of his touchdowns, McConkey was covered tightly in a one-on-one situation, and quarterback Justin Herbert trusted McConkey enough to throw into contested windows.

Trust takes time to develop. Once a receiver has Herbert’s trust, though, he can expect high volume. We saw it with Keenan Allen. We saw it with Mike Williams. McConkey is emerging as that type of player for Herbert.

McConkey has 376 yards through seven games. He would need to average 62.4 yards per game over the final 10 games to hit 1,000 yards. That is very realistic given where the McConkey-Herbert relationship is in their first season together.

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Ford has been a monster in run defense this season. There are many reasons for the Chargers’ improved run defense. I would put Ford’s addition at the top of the list. But I think Ford’s ability as a pass rusher has been overlooked to a degree through seven games. He has been providing consistent penetration on the inside as a pass rusher. He is a matchup advantage when he is one-on-one with a guard or center. Ford got his first sack as a Charger late last week against the Saints. His career high is three, which he set with the Seattle Seahawks in 2022. I think he will exceed that easily.

Ford has generated some big rushes in big moments. In the fourth quarter against the Arizona Cardinals, for example, receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. was wide open on a double move on a first down. The Chargers lost him in coverage. Ford won his one-on-one, though, and forced quarterback Kyler Murray off his spot. Murray escaped and completed a shorter throw to tight end Trey McBride along the left sideline. Ford saved a touchdown with this rush. If he keeps rushing like this, the sacks will come.

The Chargers rank 27th in rushing success rate, according to TruMedia. They are not yet what they expect to be in that phase under coordinator Greg Roman. But I do not think the Chargers will remain this low in success rate over the course of the season. They have too much run-blocking talent along the offensive line. Roman has too good of a track record as a run game schemer.

Right now, teams are gearing up to stop the Chargers’ rushing attack. That has opened up the field for Herbert in the passing game. Eventually, teams will have to adjust and devote more resources to the back end. I expect a breakout rushing game in the near future. I am looking at Week 11 against the Cincinnati Bengals, who rank dead last in defensive rushing success rate, according to TruMedia.

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Mack has been at the same level of dominance as always so far in his age-33 season. He is still one of the best all-around edge rushers in football, full stop. No qualifiers. Anyone saying Mack has lost a step is just not watching him play. The counting stats are not quite there yet. He has 3 1/2 sacks. His 26 pressures rank 19th among edge rushers. I think a lot of that is the attention he is getting from opponents. He is double-teamed often. He sometimes is even triple-teamed.

Joey Bosa is back now. He played in his first game in over a month against the Saints. He is clearly not 100 percent. But his mere presence should alleviate at least some of the attention Mack is getting in clear pass-rush situations. A vintage Mack takeover game is on the horizon. I can feel it. He had six sacks in a game last season against the Las Vegas Raiders. I don’t know if he will replicate that. He is still fully capable of wrecking a game, and I think we will see it happen before 2024 is over.

Herbert is playing some of the best football of his career since the bye, especially the last two games. His accuracy is on point. He is pushing the ball downfield without taking too much risk. His mobility is improving each week as more time passes since his early-season high-ankle sprain. That is leading to scramble yards, impressive sack avoidance and off-script playmaking through the air. The injury and slow start will prevent him from entering the MVP conversation in earnest.

But the past two games are up there with some of the best quarterbacking I have seen from Herbert. He is dialed in. And if he can stay healthy, I think he’s going to be the best player in the league over the second half of the season. The threat of a running game is creating more opportunities. He obviously has the ability, and now his health is cooperating.

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Daniel Popper is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the Los Angeles Chargers. He previously covered the Jacksonville Jaguars for The Athletic after following the New York Jets for the New York Daily News, where he spent three years writing, reporting and podcasting about local pro sports. Follow Daniel on Twitter @danielrpopper

Daniel Popper@danielrpopper